Joe Biden is the Best Bet Against Trump — What Stands in His Way?
If only we would pay closer attention to history, we could better understand why the upcoming 2020 election is not ours to win — but Trump’s to lose.
Life in America has been chaos under Trump. There is one reliable way out of this mess, but, at least for now, only one who can convince voters to oust Trump after just four years in a strong economy, one who can sell stability, normalcy, and a pull back from the hard right to the middle, one voters know and trust — and one who isn’t confronting chaos with more chaos.
But most importantly, one who is teflon against Donald Trump’s bullying tactics. There is only one who can do it and one who is currently polling higher than anyone else by a country mile — and that candidate is Mr. Vice President, Joe Biden.
But that would be way too easy, right? Nominate a candidate who could win Florida, Arizona, Nevada AND Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan — and New York and California? Maybe even some of the red states? Biden is polling higher than Trump in Texas, folks. Can you believe that?
The same forces that were at play in 2016 remain in force. Russian trolls, Trump bots, mass hysteria on the left brought on by social media, a fractured Democratic party where the wrong lessons were learned. A relentless clickbait-driven news media that focuses on outrage and scandal that Trump tosses out like breadcrumbs to hungry seagulls. We’ve done nothing to confront how we were manipulated. We know it, in reaity, but we’re being manipulated still.
If democrats united behind Biden, no matter what, Trump would be gone in 2020. The Democrats would control two of the three branches of government and we could get to work restoring all that Trump has taken away — which is significant, starting with his removal of environmental regulations, but also our position in the world — reversing the sickening Trump affinity for aligning our our country with autocrats and dictators, and rebuilding our bonds with our allies.
But that would be TOO easy. You know the divisions among Democrats. I know the divisions among Democrats. It’s never going to be THAT easy.
That Joe Biden is polling as high as he is right now is more than just name recognition. Millions of Americans crave a return to normalcy that Trump has destroyed. Remember, we’re asking voters to remove a president at a time when the economy is strong. Many voters are “issue voters” and they will stick with Trump, no matter what, if he represents more jobs, better economy and making everyone richer.
It’s a tough sell convincing voters to remove him. That is the key to winning in 2020 and it appears as though all of the other candidates are mostly caught in the feedback loop of the hysteria of the hive mind on social media, which is then echoed in clickbait-driven mainstream media. They aren’t getting the big picture. Most are greeting chaos with more chaos. That isn’t how you win.
Let’s look at the only two recent examples of one-term presidents, Jimmy Carter and HW Bush. One represents the world before Reagan, and the other, the aftermath of Reagan.
In 1980, due to nationwide fuel shortages and the Iran hostage situation,Carter’s approval ratings had dipped into the 30s. He was disliked by Americans across the spectrum, regardless of party affiliation, if you can believe THAT. He was so unpopular, Ted Kennedy actually primaried a sitting president. Not just any old Democrat, but a KENNEDY. Reagan might have won regardless, without that fracture on the left, but if Democrats had stood united and rallied behind Carter anyway, regardless of his struggles, it would have been a better strategy. Instead, they wavered and turned over presidential power to Reagan who held on for two terms and consolidated such power that he was able to put his own veep in the White House for four more years.
HW Bush encountered a similar hurdle that wrecked his two-term plans. He ran against Bill Clinton in the same year that a third option upset the usual two-party balance. Ross Perot had much the same effect on the political landscape as Bernie Sanders is having now.
Notice how most of the Democratic candidates are adopting their own versions of Bernie’s stance on many issues, even though Bernie failed to win the 2016 primary with those same positions?
Ross Perot crashed the Republican party in much the same way, cutting into the Reagan/Bush choke-hold on government by offering pie-in-the-sky promises to restless voters — along with, as in 1980, a weakened economy. That weakness splintered off an impressive 19% of the vote in November 1992. Perot bit off big slices of the electorate from both parties, but the shake-up did more damage on the right. It was enough for a charismatic Bill Clinton to ride the wave to undo Reaganomics — which was clearly failing under Bush. Clinton propelled the Democrats to retake control, and he held onto the presidency for two terms — the first Democrat since Harry Truman to do so. Barack Obama would become only the second.
If these historical precedents hold weight today, Democrats face a steep uphill battle to defeat Trump. Sure, we hear the constant refrains about the various ways Trump has wreaked havoc, about how much so many Americans want him gone, about how corrupt he is, and how the longer he’s in office the greater threat he represents to American Democracy itself. However, the economy is undeniably strong. Trump’s approvals, while forever underwater, are not tanking as badly as you’d think. They aren’t anywhere near as bad as Carter or Nixon territory. They hover in the low 40s but have yet to dip into the low 30s.
This situation can be interpreted in two ways. One reason is that celebrities, or very charismatic people, get away with a lot in modern culture. The media image machine produces creatures that are mostly Teflon. Trump has played the fame game very well. There aren’t many out there who could get away with as much as he has, because there aren’t many people that have spent a lifetime learning how to make their train-wreck lives so riveting.
The other thing that keeps Trump afloat is that the that the non-stop outrage machine he has provoked since the election has rendered the left’s anger and outrage mostly moot. The chasm he has created is too wide, the factions are too dug in, leaving too few voters undecided and able to be swayed. Granted, the liberal outrage is justified. It really is. But at some point, we have to cut our losses and get in the lifeboats to save ourselves, our country and the world from this chaos.
Since so many exhausted voters have long ago tuned out details of Trump’s never-ending debacle, they focus instead on getting by, day by day. That comes down to family finances, and the relatively robust economy enhances the chances that any president can hold onto a second term. Democrats do not control both the House and the Senate, as they did during Nixon’s presidency. Thus, impeachment — though tempting — is a dead end. That won’t stop the momentum. But it sure will help Trump.
If the House proceeds, it will be too easy for the GOP to portray hearings as a grand waste of taxpayers money, particularly since we know the outcome can’t ever be removing Trump from office. The Senate will block that from happening. It will likely end as the Barr testimony did and the Kavanaugh hearing did, with Republicans playing their more powerful chess pieces against ours and coming out the winners. Big public displays like that illustrate how little power the Democrats have in the face of deep corruption among Republicans. That isn’t a good place to be heading into such a crucial election.
Trump has managed to bait Democrats on a continual day to day basis. At some point the perception blurs, and begins to make “angry Democrats” seem like the crazy, chaotic ones, leaving Trump to claim the victim throne as a leader who’s under assault. It is a brilliant strategy employed already by Richard Nixon in 1972. Except now it’s not the silent majority but the exhausted majority. They are exhausted by Trump but they are also exhausted by the daily outrage machine of the left.
Too many Democrats aren’t looking at 2020 as a stop gap measure to hold back a second Trump term. They aren’t seeing a scant 1–5% chance at winning. No, they are doing what they, we, did in 2016 — too many ideological purists are moving forward as though we have the luxury of making a list of demands. Only this time it isn’t just angry Berners, but now it’s also angry Hillary supporters who seem determined NOT to vote for “another white guy.”
What, we have to ask ourselves, would be the reason voters might opt for such a dramatic shift after just one term if the economy ISN’T failing?
Some might say, the environment is the most urgent danger to rally around. According to the majority of scientists we simply can’t afford four more years of Trump’s energy policy. Whatever issues matter to you, I can promise you nothing is more important than putting on the brakes as best we can on the rising global temperature.
Others might say its time for women to rise and finally achieve income equality. Some might say gun control is the most emotional issue. Some might say because we need to fight for medicare for all.
Too many voters however, would not say any of those things. Too many will not be willing to sacrifice a robust economy or the promise of jobs for the sake of correcting other wrongs in our culture. Voters like those never have put ideological progress above their own personal comfort, and they never will.
So the motivation we need to instill in the electorate has to be about something much bigger than that . Although it goes without saying that nothing IS really bigger than climate change or healthcare or gun control, far too many Independents and Democrats couldn’t get over themselves long enough to block Trump in 2016 and advance those issues.
The only reason they MIGHT go for such a dramatic shift when the economy is going so well is that they MIGHT say that they want to return the country to the “manageable familiar.”
Biden is approaching his candidacy smarter than anyone else is. He isn’t trying to reinvent the wheel. He isn’t introducing a radical approach. Because he, like Obama, knows what voters want better than those who are listing to the hive mind on Twitter, or most of the high status liberal tweeters who insist that NOW is the time to take bold new action. Biden is going right for the base, those who are bread and butter of the Democratic party — black voters — but he also appeals to working class whites, moderates and even some moderate Republicans.
Folks, it’s a no-brainer.
And yet … and yet … we all know what we’re dealing with here. We’re dealing with people who protested at Standing Rock and then voted for Jill Stein. We’re dealing with people who need to advertise who they are by whom they support — it just isn’t cool in some circles to support Biden. Remember when people were afraid to wear their Hillary t-shirts or put up lawn signs but all the hipsters took a bubble bath in the Bernie swag? Branding. Can Biden brand himself cool?
Why should cool matter when the coral reefs are almost dead? I don’t know, you tell me.
And if it isn’t Biden for those people, then it’s Bernie, and we lose anyway. Any other candidate has to somehow convince voters enough to push them ahead of these two “old white guys.”
By the looks of things, there are simply too many running for any to break out of the pack and take the lead. They’re all great candidates, but perhaps they’re all so equally great that they just cancel each other out. Any gains made by Elizabeth Warren are knocked out the next day by Kamala Harris. The same goes for Beto O’Rourke and Mayor Pete.
Biden offers that safe haven for Americans who just want to make America America again, a country they can still recognize. He’s polling high because he can win. He’s polling high because voters know him, yes, but also because they NEED him.
We have 19 months to defeat Trump in the next election. Wouldn’t it be great if we focused on that instead? Wouldn’t it be great if we churned our outrage into a desire to show up at the polls united, recruit millions of new voters to join us, and vote him out? Wouldn’t it be great if we could remain unified, for once, and take back power to prove history wrong?
Otherwise, we’re stuck with this nightmare reality for 4 more years until Democrats learn yet more lessons from 2020 about what this country actually is versus what many want it to be.