It’s Still the Economy, Stupid
After last night’s debate, it is important to remember a few key points that have been utterly forgotten. The first is that no one is talking about the two things that historically matter most to Americans, especially in an election year: jobs and the economy. Donald Trump understands this. He put four words on a red hat and then defined those things as jobs and the economy. And guess what? He can back those things up with the unemployment rate and the economy. He consistently polls high when asked by all Americans on whether or not he is handling the economy well, from both sides of the aisle.
History tells us that no one-term President is unseated during a strong economy. So you’ll get a lot of people try to Bernsplain this as “Actually, the economy isn’t strong for the 99%.” Or that Obama can take credit for it. Doesn’t matter. Trump is president: Trump has bragging rights.
Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are acting as though this anxiety doesn’t exist. Not only does it exist but it very close to NUMBER ONE to most voters’ minds. Bill Clinton beat George H.W. Bush with his promises for a strong economy. Ronald Reagan beat Jimmy Carter in 1980 with his promises for a strong economy. And there you have the only two modern examples of one-term presidents being removed. That’s it. George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter. You can go further back, but there have only been FOUR since 1900.
The press doesn’t cover it because it isn’t good clickbait, because it is one of the areas that the president is succeeding at. It doesn’t matter if it’s Obama’s economy. It doesn’t matter if 75% of the population is being left behind. If the polls show Trump is handling the strong economy well, then that is what people think. And that is why he is MOST LIKELY to win in November.
The only way out of this, by the way, is to pick someone who will not rock the boat. That would be either Mike Bloomberg, who would create jobs and do well with the economy and has the record to prove it, or Joe Biden, who can also promise jobs and economic growth and also has the record to prove it. NO ONE ELSE RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT DOES.
Why would Americans take a chance on socialism right now with a strong economy? They won’t. In fact, they won’t take any major risks right now. Even if, let’s say, the economy bottoms out in the next few months and we come crashing down. You might think FDR was elected during the Great Depression. Roosevelt, though, came from money. He had the means to run for POTUS on his own, without help from the people. Our candidates are relying solely on donations from citizens, who frankly don’t have the extra money to fund their campaigns much less compete with Trump’s billion-dollar war chest and the entire GOP attack machine that has been built up over decades with the help of billionaires like the Kochs and the Mercers. Roosevelt came in a magnanimous savior who could help rather than take from people in need.
FDR took out Herbert Hoover in one term like Bill Clinton did with George H.W. Bush. Roosevelt blame Hoover for the Depression. He promised recovery and won in a landslide. But anyone who lived through the Depression can tell you that right now, we are not living through anything like that. For one thing, though not a perfect system, we still have the safety nets Roosevelt put in place (although the GOP is still systematically trying to dismantle them as we speak). Those include Social Security, food stamps (at least for now), and housing assistance. Is it a perfect system? No. But before anything radical will be attempted, Americans will have to be angry with the administration in place FOR THE BAD ECONOMY. Which we do not have.
Democrats have overplayed their hand in the anger and outrage department. As Elizabeth Warren attacked Mike Bloomberg — who made his own wealth, by the way, it wasn’t handed to him — and as they have attacked Joe Biden and other — it must be said — white men, they (we) have sabotaged our chances for removing Trump on outrage alone. He has rope-a-doped us by keeping us in a constant state of rage and outrage with every tweet. Collectively, we have not learned this lesson. Trump knows that Twitter outrage turns into New York Times and Washingotn Post op-eds. He also knows that the public is exhausted by all of it.
As an example, Twitter was consumed with the ugly lie that Mike Bloomberg stacked the audience at the debate with paid supporters. It didn’t matter if this was true or not to Twitter. They just ran with it. Finally, the Washington Post did actual journalism and revealed that no, it was 100% false:
A spokesperson for the party denied on Twitter that campaigns had stacked the room.
“Candidates get the same amount of tickets,” Xochitl Hinojosa wrote. “No one is packing the debate hall.”
In response to a question from The Post, a campaign spokesperson listed the 15 people who had been given the Bloomberg campaign’s tickets. Three were organizers for the campaign. Three were volunteers. Most of the others were current or former elected officials.
It’s important to note that Bloomberg wasn’t the only obvious beneficiary of loud applause. Former vice president Joe Biden seemed to also get a lopsided amount of support — though he’s leading in polling in the state. There seemed to be more applause in general than in past debates, perhaps prompting questions about who was there in the first place.
These attacks could be coming from Trump’s side (he is afraid of Bloomberg and he should be) or from the Bernie side (because you can’t tell them apart from Trump’s side anymore). It doesn’t matter. The end result is the same. It is a feedback loop of fake news that takes too long to correct. Our media machine is broken. It is no wonder it took someone who could deflect it to win in 2016. And why, despite all of the criticisms against him, Bloomberg could do the same thing by going way over the heads of the feedback loop and reaching the people directly.
If you want to beat Trump, your best bets are still Joe Biden or Mike Bloomberg. Both of them seem like they could win Florida where Sanders can’t and Pennsylvania where Sanders struggles.
Either way, one of these candidates is going to have to start talking about the economy and jobs.
